Is Oil Going To Become History? Future Of Oil - Kaan Demirci



For 80 years, oil has been the most significant percentage among other energy sources in the world. Even today, nearly 34% of energy production has been manufacturing from oil. Every year, the energy need of the world has been growing, especially in developing countries like Turkey. In Turkey, energy demand has been jumped from 55 million tons of oil to 155 million. Every year, the world’s energy demand has been increasing by nearly 2%. With this increase, countries have been trying to find alternatives for milestone sources like coal and oil. Also, green energy policy, which most of the world had agreed on, pushes countries for less carbon emission sources like natural gas, renewable energy, and hydropower. Under these circumstances, some experts say that oil will reach its end soon.


Oil has been using in almost every sector, especially for producing fuel oil for energy and gasoline for transportation. Because environmentally-friendly energy sources can replace fuel oil and electric vehicles can be alternative for gasoline and diesel, some experts say that oil’s future is not bright in 30-40 years. According to Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) reports, oil consumption is expected to decrease 8 million barrels per day, even today’s daily use is nearly 100 million barrels. As a supportive argument, worldwide automobile companies like Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Volvo, Toyota, Porsche, and Nissan emphasized that they will not manufacture diesel vehicles anymore. Most of the investments in the vehicle sector have been locating at hybrid and electric cars recently. From this approach, it can be said that oil is not a must source while supplying energy and transportation demand of the world.


On the other hand, as opposition, some experts say that it is too early to sound the death knell for oil even though electric vehicles are widespread and popularity of oil is decreasing among world since truck and plane fuels, and also petro-chemistry industry are mostly based on oil and their percentage in total production is too much to ignore. Especially revolution in shale oil production led by the US has well increased the total reserves of oil. As a milestone among energy and raw material sources, oil might not be easily replaced by any other source in the following century. In recent decades, the most prominent opponents and alternatives to oil are natural gas and solar energy. It is expected that in the 2030s, natural gas will get the most significant percentage of energy production in the world. Also, in the 2100s, solar energy will become popular among countries and hold the highest rate as 38. However, even in the 2100s, oil’s percentage in energy production is determined as 10%.


As the world’s energy need increases every day, oil is not a candidate for extinction. While considering that coal still exists and retain its popularity and substantial percentage, extinction of oil may not be possible in the near future. For six years, the oil price has a decreasing trend since renewable, less costly, and detrimental sources have been popular and available for industrial countries. However, as a result, product range, reserve, and consumption amounts of oil in today’s world demonstrate that it will survive for a long time as captain of industry.


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